According to cryptocurrency analyst, stock market and FX chartist Alessio Rastani, the upcoming weeks are crucial for the stock market, bitcoin, and cryptocurrency markets. He said it in an interview with cointelegraph on 2 october.
Determining the Direction of Stock Market & Bitcoin
A short-term recession or a long-term recession will be determined by the stock market’s movements in the next few weeks, according to Rastani.
“I think we are probably very likely already in recession. A lot of indicators are already showing that. We;ve already seen two quarters of negative GDP growth, which also is a likely indication of a recession. Of course only gets confirmed officially by the NBER, but that usually takes months later before they confirm that,” he said.
“ But the signs are there, we’ve already entered a recession. What is not clear is whether this is going to be a recession to the one in 2020 which was very short and quick before the market quickly recovered, or whether we are entering a more prolonged bear market?,” added him.
Expecting to See the S&P Rally
Analysts expect the S&P to rally in the period between October and December 2022. “If that bounces or rally fails and drops back down again, then very likely, we’re entering a long-term recession and something very close to 2008,” said Rastani.
Bitcoin (BTC) may be negatively affected by such a recession, which could last until 2024, according to the analyst.
Rastani said that the US dollar’s rally is mainly responsible for the recent pound sterling crisis, which has pressured most other fiat currencies, such as the yen and euro. Rastani, however, believes the US dollar is nearing its peak.
“Once we see a clean break, a sustained break, of 111.5 and 110 levels on the dollar index, then I think the top is in for the dollar. And then I’m looking for a multi-month decline in the dollar back to 104 to the 100 level on the dollar index,” he detailed.